Friday, May 29, 2015

What fuel prices should be expected - the forecast from an expert

The overall situation in the fuel market remains relatively calm.

Fuel prices in Ukraine will be stable, one of the reasons is the massive evasion traders from paying a 5% tax on retail sales. It is reported by Sergey Sapegin, Director of the SEC "Psyche", the newspaper "Today".

"C 17 to 24 April, most cheaper LPG" says Sapegin. According to experts, the price of LPG fell by 4.2% (-4 0 kopecks./l) — 9,13 UAH per liter. Least of all, 7,80 USD, for gas requested at the pump, Zhytomyr, Lviv and Kyiv oblasts and in Kyiv. Diesel fuel-the Euro fell by only 0.3% (-5 kopeks/liter) to 20,66 UAH per liter. The cheapest diesel was sold in the Zhytomyr region on 18,60 USD per liter.

The price of gasoline decreased by only 0.1% (-2 kopeks/l). A-92 Euro on average sold for 19,70 UAH per liter, A-95-Euro — 20,41 USD. Lowest price per litre "second" and "fifth" were recorded in the Sumy region — 17,90 and 18,69 UAH respectively.
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FORECAST. Average prices at the gas station will not change significantly. "This will contribute to three reasons. The first is the continuing decline in fuel prices in the shallow protected areas (over 30 days — by 7-14% depending on the brand). The second is the release of a significant volume of Belarusian oil products due to reduction of exports to Russia, which could reduce their price for Ukraine. And third, the mass evasion of traders from paying a 5% tax on retail sales," – said the expert.

Possible and weak growth in average prices due to the withdrawal of offers fuel at the lowest prices.

To provoke a small increase in the cost of fuel at filling stations may and the rise in world oil prices, the deficit of the dollar and the Euro, leading to the weakening of the hryvnia, as well as the growth of demand for petroleum products due to the departures of long distances in connection with the may holidays, and agricultural activities.



Recall that in March through a network of petrol stations in Ukraine sold 123,5 thousand tons of gasoline, which is 40.7% lower than the same period last year. This was reported on the website of the State statistics service of Ukraine.

In the volume of gasoline sold more than 51% sale of fuel grade A-95, 48% And 92 and 0.2% of A-80 and A-98.

Retail sale of diesel fuel in March were $ 97.6 thousand tons, which is 41% less than last year, the liquefied gas is less than 0.7% - 33.7 thousand tons, compressed gas is less than 28% 6.4 thousand tons.

Just March through the gas station sold light oil and gas 7.12 billion UAH. Almost 50% or 3,55 billion, of this amount falls on the retail sale of gasoline, UAH 2.7 bn, or 38% of diesel fuel, more than 729 million, or 10.2% - liquefied gas and 145,3 million, or 2%, from sales of methane.

Compared with February, the implementation of gasoline through gas stations decreased by 4%, the decline in sales was recorded in all regions of Ukraine, except Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Luhansk, Sumy and Chernivtsi regions.

The statistics cited data excluding the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea and the area of the ATO.

Note, due to the sharp devaluation of the hryvnia and the growth of the excise tax in Ukraine has significantly increased the volume of counterfeit gasoline and diesel fuel. Experts have told how to recognize the "Palenque".Be the first to suffer from this, car owners, for "entanglement" seems cheap at first glance, but its consumption is much higher than the factory petrol, and often then have to spend money to repair the engine. As told by the Manager for accepting vehicles one HUNDRED famous German brand Maxim Bochaton, for the last 3-4 months the number of vehicles with fuel system problems increased by about 60%.

According to experts, the volume of counterfeit products for the year increased twice. "After the increase from January 2015 excise taxes (excise and VAT) reached 40% in the price of gasoline, diesel fuel - 30%, 7 - 10 UAH/l. to Produce the counterfeit has become much cheaper than before, when taxes were 22-33%, it is obvious that "batajnicki nothing the state does not pay," said Director of consulting group "A-95" Sergey Kuyun.

"In 2014 because of rising fuel prices, the share of counterfeit grew like an avalanche, and amounted to 20% of the market, or 670 thousand tons per year (in 2013 it was about 10%. - Auth.). The results for the first quarter will be later, but it is already clear that the situation has not improved. According to our calculations, over the 2014 budget lost 5 billion USD in 2015 may be a shortage of up to 10 billion UAH," Kuyun said.

According to the Deputy Director of the SEC "Psyche" Gennady Ryabtsev, most often in low-octane gasoline or condensate is added ethanol, methyl tertiary butyl ether (poison), coke-ovens.

"Even a superficial analysis shows that "bodyazhat," says Ryabtsev. "For example, one brand of gas station networks officially bought in 2014 200 thousand tons of gasoline, and sold... 320 thousand tons. Where is the surplus? With three of their depot in Kiev and Vinnitsa region acquired 20 thousand tons of gasoline, 10 thousand tons of gas condensate, 30 thousand tons of octane booster additives. All this is mixed and is sold at the gas station. But such fuel damages the engine. Quality gasoline is made only at the refinery".

Experts say that low-quality gasoline is likely to get, standing on a small non-chain gas stations where the price of fuel is less than UAH per couple.

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